Escalation of tensions in the South Ossetia conflict zone could herald a new attempt by Georgia to restore hegemony, Russian politicians warn.

By Liz Fuller

Senior political figures in Russia and in the unrecognized republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have expressed concern in recent days that the escalation of tensions in the South Ossetian conflict zone herald a new attempt by Georgia to restore what they consider its hegemony over that unrecognized republic by force of arms.

Senior political figures in Russia and in the unrecognized republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have expressed concern in recent days that the escalation of tensions in the South Ossetian conflict zone herald a new attempt by Georgia to restore what they consider its hegemony over that unrecognized republic by force of arms.

There is also speculation, however, that Georgian artillery attacks on the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali, could equally be intended to deflect attention from a planned incursion into Abkhazia, possibly as the world focuses on the informal talks in Kennebunkport between US President George W Bush and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.

As recently as 26 June, Dmitry Sanakoyev, whom Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili named in May to head a pro-Tbilisi provisional administration in South Ossetia that is clearly intended to take control of the region following the collapse of the current pro-Moscow leadership headed by de facto President Eduard Kokoity, assured members of the European Parliament in Brussels of his commitment to direct dialogue with the people of South Ossetia to a peaceful solution to the conflict that erupted in 1990.

Violence breaks out

But within days, three separate mortar attacks were launched on Tskhinvali on 29-30 June, reportedly killing one young man and injuring a second man and a woman. Moscow and Tskhinvali have blamed Tbilisi for the attacks, although Georgian officials have denied any responsibility. That denial raises the possibility that renegade elements within the Georgian armed forces were acting on their own initiative, as was apparently the case in August 2004, when Georgian Interior Ministry troops launched a disastrous attack on South Ossetian villages in which up to a dozen Georgians were killed.

Kokoity on 29 June held talks in Moscow with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who impressed on him the need for the "maximum restraint." The following day, Kokoity told fellow Ossetians in Vladikavkaz, the capital of neighboring North Ossetia, that "no matter how difficult it is for us, we shall not allow the dummy government in Tbilisi to draw us into an armed conflict."

On 29 June, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon made an unannounced visit to Tbilisi, where he met with President Saakashvili and parliament speaker Nino Burjanadze. No details of their talks were divulged, but senior diplomats from the so-called Friends of the UN Secretary-General group of countries (France, Germany, Russia, the UK and the US) met in Bonn on June 27-28 with senior Abkhaz and Georgian officials to discuss, among other issues, the security situation in the Kodori Gorge, which straddles the territory of the unrecognized republic of Abkhazia and Georgia proper. Tbilisi deployed Interior Ministry troops in July 2006 to the upper, Georgian-controlled part of the gorge, but is now in the process of withdrawing them and co-opting local personnel to serve as their replacement, according to a detailed summary of the Bonn talks posted on 29 June on kavkaz-uzel.ru.

Unidentified armed men

According to the summary, the diplomats expressed concern in Bonn at reports that unidentified armed men have been spotted in the lower, Abkhaz-controlled sector of the Kodori Gorge, and they called on both the Georgian and Abkhaz delegations to the talks to investigate and clarify those reports. The Georgian delegation reportedly denied that any Georgian security personnel have ventured on to territory controlled by the Abkhaz side.

Georgia has sought on two previous occasions to co-opt irregular forces to launch a new incursion into Abkhazia to bring that breakaway republic back under its control. The first attempt, in May 1998, by two Georgian guerrilla formations, the so-called White Legion and Forest Brothers, was launched across the Inguri River that marks the border between Abkhazia and the rest of Georgia, and failed spectacularly.

In the second, in early October 2001, senior Georgian officials whose identity has never been established co-opted Chechen resistance fighters loyal to field commander Ruslan Gelayev and transported them across Georgia to the Kodori Gorge, whence they sought to penetrate Abkhaz territory. They were, however, beaten back by the Abkhaz armed forces. More than 100 people were reported killed in the 1998 offensive and some 40 - including five UN observers - in 2001. Any armed force that did succeed in advancing to the lower reaches of the Kodori Gorge would be strategically placed to launch an attack on the Abkhaz capital, Sukhum(i).

Warning note?

Could UN Secretary-General Ban's lightning stopover in Tbilisi have been connected with the reported presence of unidentified fighters in Abkhazia? If so, Ban might have delivered a warning to President Saakashvili that any new military aggression in Abkhazia would not only incur condemnation from the international community, but risk undercutting Georgia's position at the ongoing UN-mediated peace talks.

But Saakashvili, who has on numerous occasions referred to the Abkhaz and Ossetians as "brothers" and "allies" whom he professes to love, must be acutely aware that he has a maximum of 15-16 months to make good on his repeated pledges to restore Georgia's territorial integrity before his first presidential term expires.

Should he try and fail, he will be perceived as a lame duck, and strengthen the man observers identify as his likely main challenger in the 2008 presidential ballot, Irakli Okruashvili, a decided hawk who has served as both defense and interior minister. It was Okruashvili who, as interior minister, commanded the abortive attack on South Ossetia three summers ago. Okruashvili is currently said to be preparing to launch his own political party, to which some parliament deputies from Saakashvili's United National Movement are reportedly ready to defect.



Copyright (c) 2007. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Washington DC 20036. Funded by the US Congress.


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“I invited the John XXIII Community to work in Georgia to put its special charisma at the service of the marginalised in the light of the love of Christ and at the disposal of our Church and local society” said the Apostolic Administrator of the Caucuses of the Latins Bishop Giuseppe Pasotto, in Tbilisi, capital of Georgia.

“The John XXIII Community has just arrived in Georgia and is assessing where it can intervene better to bring comfort and hope to people most in need,” according to the Bishop.

He continued, “The fall of the Soviet Union had a disastrous affect on Georgia's economic and social life. Despite signs of improvement in recent years the main problem is still widespread poverty. Among the poorest people, pensioners who have just about 20 Euro a month on which to live. New forms of poverty common to other countries, such as drug abuse and street children, have appeared here too”.

When asked about the local Catholic community, Bishop Pasotto said, “There are about 50,000 Catholics of three different rites: Armenian, Latin and Syro-Chaldean. There have been Catholics here since about 1250 and after the fall of communism, Catholics of Latin rite were able to reorganise their structures: there are 25 communities. I have been Apostolic Administrator for seven years and last year we concluded our first diocesan Synod."

With respect to that Synod, Bishop Pasotto added that "It was a wonderful experience of Church, a lively Catholic community despite the difficulties. At the end of the Synod we adopted 3 resolutions: courage of community dimension in dialogue with other churches and religious confessions; courage of formation opening formative structures; courage of service involving lay people in services such as the deaconate and catechism.”

“From the point of view of ecumenical dialogue," said Bishop Pasotto, "Georgia has a Commission of representatives of the different Christian Churches which meets once a month. We work hard to promote dialogue with the Orthodox Church here which is the largest religious community in Georgia, and to which we feel spiritually close. We dialogue with the Orthodox Patriarchate through a mixed commission of two bishops and two priests for either side.”

According to Bishop Pasotto, “The Catholic Church is very active in social work through Caritas and parish structures."

He added that the "service for the needy we wish to increase with the help of the John XXIII Community. The Catholic community is appreciated for this by the government and by the other Christian communities. This appreciation was noted when the government asked a Catholic representative to give the principal address at a conference on Catholic Social Doctrine organised by the government.”

Original source: Fides Service
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